EV sales to overtake petrol by 2028

Electric car sales will overtake petrol sales in the UK by 2028, according to a new report.

Cox Automotive’s four-year forecast said that the increase in EV sales since 2020 had been ‘staggering’ and showed promising development of the market.

While 2028 will mark the tipping point between the two powertrains, the auto industry analyst warned that EV sales were still likely to fall short of the targets set under the ZEV mandate unless ‘significant barriers’ were overcome.

According to Cox’s predictions, the continued growth in EV sales and decline in petrol will see EVs account for 36% of new cars in 2028, compared with 30% petrol. The ZEV mandate target is 52% EV sales.

Electric cars already outsell diesel and all hybrid powertrains but remain a significantly smaller presence than petrol, which in January 2025 accounted for half of all new car registrations. EVs, in comparison, accounted for 21%.

Since 2020 diesel’s market share has declined 76% to just over 6% in 2024. Petrol has also seen a reduction, with a loss of 1.4 million units, representing a 26.61% decline over the same period. Electric car sales, on the other hand, have grown 560%.

Philip Nothard, insight director at Cox Automotive said that while the current trend would continue, the next few years would be an unsettled time for the industry.

He commented: “The next four years will remain volatile as the sector adapts to economic headwinds and ever-evolving consumer demands. We will continue to bear witness to the rise of new manufacturers, including those from China and other international markets, while incumbent manufacturers adjust their in-market strategies. All while the industry responds and adapts to increasingly diverse local and internal regulations.”

A recent study by Cox Automotive found that some drivers remained unsure about the switch to EVs. Cost remained a critical factor, and 69% of drivers said they wouldn’t be willing to pay more for an EV over a petrol or diesel alternative. The study also found that 86% of drivers want to see greater incentives from the government to drive adoption.

It has been rumoured that, in the face of subdued private interest in EVs, the government is considering new subsidies that could allow low- or zero-interest loans on electric models to stimulate the market.