The EV vs ICE tipping point is already here

While environmental concerns have necessitated the shift to decarbonised transport, it will be the lower cost of owning and running electric vehicles, that drives the change. Ali Khan, head of EVC business development at Vestel Mobility, suggests the cost of ownership tipping point has already arrived.

Human nature means we are generally resistant to change. That is particularly acute when there is a dramatic shift in technology we use daily, and more so if the change is a revolution rather than evolution. No surprise then that electric cars are a difficult concept to embrace for many, including journalists and editors behind some of the UK’s leading national newspapers.

Some of their anti-EV rhetoric is founded in misguided assumptions or clever steering from the petroleum industry, others on historic or legacy EV technology that has been significantly updated in recent years. Yet there remains plenty of real, significant challenges to EV ownership for many that are difficult to see past at this time; lack of charging infrastructure and the sheer cost of EVs being the two big ticket roadblocks.

The first issue is less of an issue than most people realise already, and the number of public charge points being installed per day in phenomenal. According to charge-point map provider ZapMap, by the end of November 2024, there were 72,594 electric vehicle charging points across the UK, in 36,316 charging locations and offering 106,094 connectors. In the last month of that survey, 1,135 new public charging devices were added to the Zapmap database.

If you look at today’s ZapMap map, it is difficult to find a spot in the UK more than 10 miles away from a public charger unless you live in a very remote location – areas that typically have homes with enough space for home chargers. The charging infrastructure market is moving at a staggering pace, with energy providers working out how to be the energy supplier of choice, charge point operators queuing up to bag prime locations and a growing number of charger manufacturers.

As one of Europe’s largest charger manufacturers, Vestel Mobility took prime spot at the recent London EVShow trade expo to show our chargers from7kW to 1MW to the trade – yet we were one of 60 charger manufacturers at the event. Charging infrastructure is already workable for the majority of car users and getting better by the day – just ask the 1.34 million fully electric car users on UK roads today.

At what cost though?

Comparing a base model Tesla Model 3 family saloon with a base-specification Audi A4 family saloon, the purchase price is about the same at around £40,000. Tesla has a lot more add-ons and features than a standard Audi, so the chances are, spec-for-spec, the Audi will be more expensive to buy – but let’s call that quits.

Residual value and depreciation of EVs is a prime subject for the anti-EV media, but their ‘shock’ figures are just not true, particularly for these mid-sized cars. According to car resale website Motorway, electric cars on average retain about 48% of their original value after three years, which puts them marginally ahead of the combustion engine counterparts at 46-47%. Close enough to call that quits as well.

As we transition to electrification of the UK road network and more EVs trickle down into the used car market, the value of second-hand EVs will begin to rise further as demand will outstrip supply. The opposite is likely to be true for ICE cars, outside of classics and collectables, in the not-too-distant future as the supply of petrol and diesel cars will flood onto the market reducing resale values.

While the cost of purchase and resale are roughly on-par for ICE and EV vehicles, the running costs in between are dramatically different.

Over three years using rates from April 2025, the Audi TFSI (149g/km of CO2) will cost around £1,000 in total road tax, including a first-year rate of £540. The Tesla will cost less than £500. Should you be purchasing the car for work or using a company car, the BIK (benefit in kind) savings of EVs are whopping. On our example, the purchaser would pay income tax on around £11,000 for the ICE Audi and £700 for the battery Tesla. There is a clear electric winner here.

Servicing? A typical ICE car has around 20,000 moving parts, an ICE has around 200 and servicing costs are commensurately cheaper. Some EVs, such as those from Volkswagen also require less frequent servicing, typically 2 years or 24,000 miles. From budget to performance cars, servicing will be cheaper on the EV. EV win.

Fuelling the future

But what about fuels costs? This is the biggest variable because where you charge an EV has a dramatic impact on running costs. At home or at work charging is by far the most economical, motorway fast charger are the worst and the difference is a factor of 10. Octopus’ Go tariff sees EV charge at just 8.5p/kWh overnight at home, while the same kWh of power would cost 80p or more at a forecourt fast charger.

Taking our entry-level standard range Model 3 as an example. It achieves around 300 miles of range from what is believed to be a 57.5kWh battery. Charged overnight at home on an energy tariff like Octopus Go, a full 57.5kWh charge would cost as little as £4.89 (8.5p per kWh x 57.5) and give a range of up to 300 miles. Our example Audi has a claimed economy of 45mpg (10 miles per litre) and cost around £40 for a 300 miles’ worth of fuel. That’s a clear win for EV… unless you have to charge at motorway fast charger, where the same range will cost £46.

Those figures are not unique to smaller car comparisons. Even ‘power hungry’ high-performance SUVs like the Lotus Eletra R, which manages a paltry 2.5 miles per kWh, will do over 250 miles on its 110kWh battery, costing just £9.35 to fully charge from empty on the same tariff. An equivalent high-performance ICE SUV, such as a Mercedes AMG GLE63, will cost around £90 for a tank full of E5 Super Unleaded to manage the same 250 miles. Charging the Lotus at a service station (£88) will be about the same.

It is estimated that around 60% of UK homes have a drive or garage, and for that demographic charging mostly at home, EV total cost of ownership is clearly much cheaper than an equivalent ICE car.

Fuel cost over the duration of ownership is the biggest cost caveat to EV ownership for anyone who cannot charge at home or work – particularly as public charging and fuel fill ups are regular, very visible weekly bills. Yet, taking our Audi and Tesla example and factoring in the lower road tax, potential BIK saving, lower servicing costs and marginally higher residuals on the EV, total cost of ownership is actually a close-run thing.

As residual values increase on EVs and decrease on ICE vehicles in the next few years, and the public charging infrastructure gets more comprehensive and competitive in pricing, the maths will swing further towards EV ownership being far more economical – even in the worst-case public charging cost scenarios. Add in innovative domestic charging solutions like Kerbocharge, employers offering discount staff charging, supermarkets offering shopping/charging incentives, and a more competitive EV market overall, the cost balance will continue tip further towards EVs being the cheaper option for almost everyone.

Human nature remains resistant to change, yet the change to EVs is vital in securing the future of our environment. Perhaps then, this ever-lowering total cost of EV ownership will be the catalyst that fast tracks an electric, decarbonised and greener future in the UK.